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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But the current field is distinctly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans ascending in unison. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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